The NBU is preparing a new decision: how the exchange rate will change next week.

According to the director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activity of 'Globus Bank' Taras Lesovyi, next week the situation in the currency market of Ukraine will be determined exclusively by economic and regulatory factors. Military events and informational speculations regarding negotiations to end the war will not have a significant impact on the exchange rate dynamics.

Lesovyi claims that the current situation in the market does not threaten the stability of the exchange rate. Informational speculations will not have a significant impact on the hryvnia exchange rate, as the market is protected from non-economic influences. All fluctuations in the exchange rate will be caused by the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine. The main factor influencing the hryvnia exchange rate will be the NBU's monetary measures aimed at curbing inflation and maintaining the stability of the national currency.

One possible factor for change could be the decision of the NBU's monetary committee on April 17. If the regulator finds previous steps insufficiently effective, the discount rate may be raised to 16-16.5%. However, this step would also contribute to the strengthening of the hryvnia.

The activity of agrarians during the sowing campaign will also affect the situation in the currency market. They will more often sell currency, which will increase its supply in the market and allow the NBU to reduce its influence without risking exchange rate stability.

From April 14-20, it is forecasted that the exchange rates will fluctuate within: 41-41.6 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR interbank, and 40.7-41.5 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR in the cash segment. Changes will be minor and will not exceed 1-1.5% from the starting Monday rate.

According to Lesovyi, the leading role will remain with the National Bank, which makes uncontrolled exchange rate changes impossible.